Sunday, February 9, 2014

Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

** Updated on 10/Apr/14 on Telecast up to 09/Apr/14  with 40 / 40 constituencies *** 
** NDA Mega Alliance is Confirmed. Congress and Communists are now assumed to contest separately ** 
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary ** 
** NO MORE UPDATES - THESE ARE FINAL FIGURES *

Thanthi TV is one of the leading Tamil news channels. It is owned by the Dina-thanthi group which sells the print daily with the same name. The group is highly respected, has no declared political leanings and has a track record of seven decades. Thanthi TV conducted a pre-poll survey across 40 Loksabha constituencies of Tamilnadu in the month of January 2014. The questionnaire had 24 questions for respondents to answer. The total sample size across 40 constituencies was 20,000 - one of the largest ever in TV history. 
The results from the survey are presented constituency wise every week day (Monday to Friday) at 9.30 PM IST on Thanthi TV. The program started on 3rd-Feb-2014. The TV show presents the pre-poll survey results; along with detailed analysis by a local expert, assembly constituency wise sentiment of people & open issues. The video clips are also available online hereAll copyrights of this survey rest with the source. The only motivation to publish the summary of the results is for benefit of audience, who do not understand Tamil.

This blog post will be updated regularly based on the results shared on a daily basis. Please bookmark this web-page and keep visiting to get an update. 
    
Summary - Region wise
In this section, I present the summary of results region-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added to the Details Section. 

Winners

Region
DMK+
NDA
ADMK+
Cong
Comm
Declared
TOTAL
Chennai
1

3


4
4
North


10


10
10
Delta
1

5


6
6
Kongu

1
8


9
9
South

1
9


10
10
Pondy



1

1
1
STATE
2
2
35
1
0
40
40

Second Place:        ADMK+: 5           NDA:  10             DMK+:  25          Cong: 0 

Note* 23 / 40 constituencies declared to as close-call within the margin of error of 10% - which is subject to change based on campaign. Based on margins  the projected range of seats for the parties are given below. 
ADMK+:       15 to 38  
NDA:              2 to  7 
DMK:              0 to  15

UPA Sentiment - The % of respondents who are either in favor or against UPA. 


PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for. 


AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP. 


The below table gives the Vote share% of various alliances

Region
DMK+
NDA
ADMK+
Cong
Comm
Others
Chennai
32.7
25.6
36.0
3.7
2.0
0.0
North
29.1
24.8
39.1
5.5
1.9
0.0
Delta
29.5
23.8
38.9
6.2
0.7
0.9
Kongu
23.8
30.5
35.9
6.7
1.4
1.6
South
25.7
24.7
38.2
8.0
3.1
0.4
Pondy
18.0
18.0
20.6
29.4
0.0
0.0
STATE
27.2
25.8
37.3
6.9
1.9
0.6

The Alliance Vote-share is graphically shown below.


The Alliances are :- 
DMK+ - DMK, VCK, PT, MMK 
NDA - BJP, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, KMDK
ADMK+ - ADMK + Smaller allies
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately 

For the purpose of summarizing 39 constituencies in Tamilnadu are divided into 5 regions.
Chennai (4) - North, Central, South Chennai, & Sriperumpudur,
North (10) - Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Arakonam, Arani, Vellore, TVMalai, 4 in South Arcot
Delta (6) - Trichy, Permbalur, Thanjavur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Karur
Kongu (9) - K'giri, D'puri, Salem, Namakkal, Erode, Tiruppur, Kovai, Pollachi, Nilgris 
South (10) - Madurai, Dindugal, Ramnad, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tuticorin, Nellai, Tenkasi, KanyaKumari  

Details - Constituency Wise
In this section, I present the details constituency-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added. The methodology that I have followed to compute the numbers from the survey questions shared by Thanthi TV is discussed at the end of this post. 

The below table gives a summary of "sentiment" of people constituency wise. 

UPA Sentiment
PM Sentiment
AAP Sentiment
Constituency
Favor
Against
NaMO
RaGa
Jaya
Others
Favor
Against
Kanyakumari
34
67
56
28
16
1
1
99
Nagapattinam
18
82
78
13
7
3
7
93
Arakonam
21
80
54
21
20
6
11
89
Vellore
44
57
54
42
5
0
34
66
Krishnagiri
11
90
69
12
20
0
11
89
Mayiladuthurai
15
86
72
14
13
2
9
91
Nilgris
10
90
51
18
21
11
14
86
Chidambaram
7
93
75
8
15
3
9
91
Tirunelveli
25
75
56
23
15
7
2
98
Tiruppur
17
83
51
14
24
11
3
97
Trichy
34
66
53
26
21
1
22
78
Madurai
34
67
47
23
24
7
15
85
Tenkasi
22
78
52
20
26
3
2
98
Tuticorin
26
74
50
27
20
4
14
86
Karur
23
77
67
17
10
7
7
93
Kanchipuram
36
65
51
37
13
0
1
99
Virudhunagar
35
65
52
41
8
0
20
80
North Chennai
30
70
52
20
28
1
8
92
Salem
17
84
78
19
4
0
28
72
Kadalur
39
62
61
34
6
0
18
82
Theni
38
62
54
26
18
3
29
71
Kovai
14
86
59
18
19
6
23
77
Ramnad
13
88
74
16
11
0
2
98
Tiruvallur
29
71
51
38
12
0
17
83
Dindugul
42
58
46
36
16
4
20
80
Sriperumpudur
35
65
52
31
13
5
9
91
Erode
29
71
68
26
6
1
13
87
Dharmapuri
20
80
67
23
11
0
11
89
Vilupuram
20
80
52
19
29
0
11
89
Perambalur
10
91
64
9
22
6
17
83
Arani
13
87
63
14
21
4
4
96
Pollachi
22
79
38
30
16
17
11
89
Tiruvannamalai
26
74
60
25
12
4
16
84
South Chennai
43
58
48
34
18
2
11
89
Kallakurichi
16
85
62
13
21
4
7
93
Central Chennai
23
78
45
20
27
9
3
97
Namakkal
27
73
48
19
30
4
14
86
Tanjore
10
90
70
11
12
8
7
93
Sivaganga
38
63
52
42
6
1
15
85
Pondy
21
80
67
15
14
5
5
95

The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color. 

Vote Share %

Constituency
DMK+
NDA
ADMK+
Cong
Comm
Others
Kanyakumari
4.0
46.0
24.8
23.2
2.4
0.0
Nagapattinam
25.2
23.6
41.2
10.0
0.0
0.0
Arakonam
28.4
21.6
47.2
2.4
4.9
0.0
Vellore
24.8
28.0
28.4
18.0
0.0
0.0
Krishnagiri
28.8
25.4
36.0
9.0
0.8
0.0
Mayiladuthurai
22.8
30.4
36.0
8.8
1.9
0.0
Nilgris
2.4
50.8
19.6
19.6
0.0
6.8
Chidambaram
31.6
30.4
35.2
2.8
0.0
0.0
Tirunelveli
26.0
19.1
46.7
4.2
4.0
0.0
Tiruppur
19.0
24.2
38.4
6.0
4.9
7.5
Trichy
32.0
22.0
41.0
5.0
0.0
0.0
Madurai
36.0
16.0
38.0
5.0
5.0
0.0
Tenkasi
23.0
22.7
42.0
4.0
4.2
4.1
Tuticorin
28.0
23.8
41.0
6.0
1.2
0.0
Karur
28.0
17.4
44.0
5.0
0.0
5.6
Kanchipuram
27.0
19.0
46.0
8.0
0.0
0.0
Virudhunagar
22.5
27.0
39.8
7.3
3.4
0.0
North Chennai
30.0
24.0
35.0
5.0
6.0
0.0
Salem
24.0
26.0
42.0
4.0
4.0
0.0
Kadalur
20.0
28.0
44.0
3.1
4.9
0.0
Theni
30.3
22.0
40.0
4.3
3.4
0.0
Kovai
17.0
37.0
39.0
4.0
3.0
0.0
Ramnad
31.1
24.0
38.0
4.8
2.1
0.0
Tiruvallur
32.0
16.0
44.0
4.0
4.0
0.0
Dindugul
26.6
20.8
38.6
9.0
5.0
0.0
Sriperumpudur
32.9
24.4
39.7
3.0
0.0
0.0
Erode
31.0
22.0
40.4
6.6
0.0
0.0
Dharmapuri
32.7
28.6
34.0
4.7
0.0
0.0
Vilupuram
31.0
25.9
36.7
4.0
2.4
0.0
Perambalur
35.0
23.7
35.0
6.3
0.0
0.0
Arani
29.0
30.0
37.6
3.4
0.0
0.0
Pollachi
28.6
31.6
35.8
4.0
0.0
0.0
Tiruvannamalai
34.0
22.0
36.0
5.0
3.0
0.0
South Chennai
32.4
30.0
34.2
3.4
0.0
0.0
Kallakurichi
33.2
27.0
35.4
4.4
0.0
0.0
Central Chennai
35.6
24.0
35.0
3.4
2.0
0.0
Namakkal
31.0
29.0
38.0
2.0
0.0
0.0
Tanjore
34.2
25.4
36.0
2.1
2.3
0.0
Sivaganga
29.2
25.2
33.4
12.2
0.0
0.0
Pondy
18.0
18.0
20.6
29.4
0.0
0.0

Note* Where the gap between winner & 2nd place is < 10% is treated as close - and subject to change based on the campaign undertaken.  

Methodology
The methodology followed for summarizing the data shared by Thanthi TV is as follows. 

UPA sentiment is the average of the % of respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.  
  • Has UPA-2 delivered on its promises? 
  • Do you want to see UPA come back to power again? 
AAP sentiment is the % of the respondents who are aware about AAP and have expressed openness to vote for AAP.  i.e.  Favourable (Q3 Yes * Q4 Yes/100)  Against (100 - Favorable) 
  • Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party ? 
  • If yes, Will you vote for the Aam Aadmi Party ? 
PM sentiment is the average of the % of the respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.  
  • Whom do you desire to see as Prime Minister? 
  • Given the problems of India, whom do you think as PM can solve them? 
Thanthi TV also shares the vote share % in a nested manner. The exact figures are computed using the appropriate formula. 

Thanthi TV also shares data about another question on the likelihood of Jayalalitha becoming the PM. The answers are YES, NO and MAY BE. But that question is not considered in the reporting done on this blog post.