Has the Welfare State gone Well too Far ?

Welfare State refers to a governance model where State plays an active interventionist role for the protection of social and economic well-being of its citizens. The guiding principles of a Welfare state are equal opportunity, equitable distribution of wealth and public responsibility of the state towards citizens who are unable to avail themselves of minimum provisions for a good life.

This article presents a five criteria framework to assess the functioning of a welfare state. To illustrate concepts better, we use the case of State of Tamilnadu; which has been receiving rave appreciation and brickbats at equal measure for being a successful welfare state. For reading the article from Swarajya Magazine website, click here. 

Analysis & Predictions for TN LS 2014 Polls

I am a firm believer that sampling vote shares at state level and then extrapolating it to wins for each party – does not work well in the “first past post” Indian system. This post is my attempt to gauge constituency wise mood to arrive at seat predictions for Tamilnadu in the upcoming LS polls 2014; where people get to cast their vote on 24^th April 2014.

Several leading regional media houses have published constituency wise survey results. I am going to triangulate these sources, plus apply my own observation from several field reports to arrive at the predictions. Warning: Such triangulation by heuristics have systemic biases which can affect reliability of results; however this is the best one can do, when he/she doesn’t have access to the primary data to do a formal statistical Meta-Analysis of the results. The sources that I referred to are:-  

• Kumudam surveyed a record 66,100 respondents from all 39 constituencies of Tamilnadu. The demographic breakup was 62% male – 38% female; which is having a larger male skew. Their demographic sample included 11% first time voters, 13% school dropouts, 32.7% graduates+. Again they have a higher skew of graduates. They partnered with Statistics professor from Madras University T. R. Gopalakrishnan.  
• ThanthiTV surveyed 20,000 respondents from all the constituencies. They have not shared the demographic breakup, however have stated that all the standard precautions in stratification of sample have been taken care. Their partner was Kris info media.
• Thuglaq weekly surveyed 10,000 respondents from all 39 constituencies. They did not follow a statistical process, but they use a qualitative methodology to interpret results based on findings from the field. Their results were fairly accurate in the 2011 assembly polls giving it some credence.
• Nakkeran magazine also did its predictions – but I summarily discount them as a source – given their political lineation and previous track record of complete failure.
• Vikatan has done a survey of 27,000 respondents and given projected state level vote share. However since constituency wise break-up & demographic break-up is not available, I am constrained to not use this as a source. However I am using the field reports filed in Junior Vikatan.

  

Summary

Region	Party	> 70% Probability	50 to 70% Probability	Low Margin  Close Call	Total
Chennai (4)	ADMK		1		1
	DMK	1		2	3
	NDA				0
North TN (10)	ADMK	2	2	1	5
	DMK		3	1	4
	NDA			1	1
Delta (6)	ADMK	1	2	1	4
	DMK	1	1		2
	NDA				0
Kongu (9)	ADMK		1	3	4
	DMK		1		1
	NDA		1	3	4
South TN (10)	ADMK	1	2	3	6
	DMK			1	1
	NDA	2	1		3
State (39)	ADMK	4	8	8	20
	DMK	2	5	4	11
	NDA	2	2	4	8

So the predictions are ADMK - 20 , DMK - 11 and NDA - 8 

The above table takes into account our stab on who would win each of the 16 constituencies that were classified as close calls. If our predictions on closed calls go the other way, then there are upside and downside possibilities for each of the alliances. Accordingly we provide the forecasts as range of seats below. These can be treated as safe bets of the likely electoral outcome.

ADMK - 12 to 28

DMK – 7 to 16

NDA – 4 to 13

For the complete analysis including seat-wise mood meter & predictions, please read the full article hosted on CRI website here

Recalibrating the Creature called AAP

This article is second in the series- in attempting to understand the turn of events in AAP and what it means to centre right thinkers. The earlier article with the title “Understanding the Creature called AAP” was written in December during the nascent stage of the party, when they had just formed the government in Delhi. The previous article had analyzed the bottom-up model of hierarchy (Swaraj) critically. 

This article looks at turn of events from the past three months & re-calibrates the positioning of AAP . It also critically explains the "People strategy" of AAP and who will stay, who will join, and what will happen to the party post May 16th. 

Continue to read the detailed article from CRI Website here

Thanthi TV - Tamilnadu LS 2014 Pre-poll Survey Results

** Updated on 10/Apr/14 on Telecast up to 09/Apr/14  with 40 / 40 constituencies *** 

** NDA Mega Alliance is Confirmed. Congress and Communists are now assumed to contest separately ** 
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary ** 

** NO MORE UPDATES - THESE ARE FINAL FIGURES ** 

Thanthi TV is one of the leading Tamil news channels. It is owned by the Dina-thanthi group which sells the print daily with the same name. The group is highly respected, has no declared political leanings and has a track record of seven decades. Thanthi TV conducted a pre-poll survey across 40 Loksabha constituencies of Tamilnadu in the month of January 2014. The questionnaire had 24 questions for respondents to answer. The total sample size across 40 constituencies was 20,000 - one of the largest ever in TV history. 

The results from the survey are presented constituency wise every week day (Monday to Friday) at 9.30 PM IST on Thanthi TV. The program started on 3rd-Feb-2014. The TV show presents the pre-poll survey results; along with detailed analysis by a local expert, assembly constituency wise sentiment of people & open issues. The video clips are also available online here. All copyrights of this survey rest with the source. The only motivation to publish the summary of the results is for benefit of audience, who do not understand Tamil.

This blog post will be updated regularly based on the results shared on a daily basis. Please bookmark this web-page and keep visiting to get an update. 

    

Summary - Region wise

In this section, I present the summary of results region-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added to the Details Section. 

Winners

Region	DMK+	NDA	ADMK+	Cong	Comm	Declared	TOTAL
Chennai	1		3			4	4
North			10			10	10
Delta	1		5			6	6
Kongu		1	8			9	9
South		1	9			10	10
Pondy				1		1	1
STATE	2	2	35	1	0	40	40

Second Place:        ADMK+: 5           NDA:  10             DMK+:  25          Cong: 0 

Note* 23 / 40 constituencies declared to as close-call within the margin of error of 10% - which is subject to change based on campaign. Based on margins  the projected range of seats for the parties are given below. 
ADMK+:       15 to 38  
NDA:              2 to  7 
DMK:              0 to  15

UPA Sentiment - The % of respondents who are either in favor or against UPA. 

PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for. 

AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP. 

The below table gives the Vote share% of various alliances

Region	DMK+	NDA	ADMK+	Cong	Comm	Others
Chennai	32.7	25.6	36.0	3.7	2.0	0.0
North	29.1	24.8	39.1	5.5	1.9	0.0
Delta	29.5	23.8	38.9	6.2	0.7	0.9
Kongu	23.8	30.5	35.9	6.7	1.4	1.6
South	25.7	24.7	38.2	8.0	3.1	0.4
Pondy	18.0	18.0	20.6	29.4	0.0	0.0
STATE	27.2	25.8	37.3	6.9	1.9	0.6

The Alliance Vote-share is graphically shown below.

The Alliances are :- 

DMK+ - DMK, VCK, PT, MMK 

NDA - BJP, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, KMDK

ADMK+ - ADMK + Smaller allies
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately 

For the purpose of summarizing 39 constituencies in Tamilnadu are divided into 5 regions.

Chennai (4) - North, Central, South Chennai, & Sriperumpudur,

North (10) - Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Arakonam, Arani, Vellore, TVMalai, 4 in South Arcot

Delta (6) - Trichy, Permbalur, Thanjavur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Karur

Kongu (9) - K'giri, D'puri, Salem, Namakkal, Erode, Tiruppur, Kovai, Pollachi, Nilgris 

South (10) - Madurai, Dindugal, Ramnad, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tuticorin, Nellai, Tenkasi, KanyaKumari  

Details - Constituency Wise

In this section, I present the details constituency-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added. The methodology that I have followed to compute the numbers from the survey questions shared by Thanthi TV is discussed at the end of this post. 

The below table gives a summary of "sentiment" of people constituency wise. 

	UPA Sentiment		PM Sentiment				AAP Sentiment
Constituency	Favor	Against	NaMO	RaGa	Jaya	Others		Favor	Against
Kanyakumari	34	67	56	28	16	1		1	99
Nagapattinam	18	82	78	13	7	3		7	93
Arakonam	21	80	54	21	20	6		11	89
Vellore	44	57	54	42	5	0		34	66
Krishnagiri	11	90	69	12	20	0		11	89
Mayiladuthurai	15	86	72	14	13	2		9	91
Nilgris	10	90	51	18	21	11		14	86
Chidambaram	7	93	75	8	15	3		9	91
Tirunelveli	25	75	56	23	15	7		2	98
Tiruppur	17	83	51	14	24	11		3	97
Trichy	34	66	53	26	21	1		22	78
Madurai	34	67	47	23	24	7		15	85
Tenkasi	22	78	52	20	26	3		2	98
Tuticorin	26	74	50	27	20	4		14	86
Karur	23	77	67	17	10	7		7	93
Kanchipuram	36	65	51	37	13	0		1	99
Virudhunagar	35	65	52	41	8	0		20	80
North Chennai	30	70	52	20	28	1		8	92
Salem	17	84	78	19	4	0		28	72
Kadalur	39	62	61	34	6	0		18	82
Theni	38	62	54	26	18	3		29	71
Kovai	14	86	59	18	19	6		23	77
Ramnad	13	88	74	16	11	0		2	98
Tiruvallur	29	71	51	38	12	0		17	83
Dindugul	42	58	46	36	16	4		20	80
Sriperumpudur	35	65	52	31	13	5		9	91
Erode	29	71	68	26	6	1		13	87
Dharmapuri	20	80	67	23	11	0		11	89
Vilupuram	20	80	52	19	29	0		11	89
Perambalur	10	91	64	9	22	6		17	83
Arani	13	87	63	14	21	4		4	96
Pollachi	22	79	38	30	16	17		11	89
Tiruvannamalai	26	74	60	25	12	4		16	84
South Chennai	43	58	48	34	18	2		11	89
Kallakurichi	16	85	62	13	21	4		7	93
Central Chennai	23	78	45	20	27	9		3	97
Namakkal	27	73	48	19	30	4		14	86
Tanjore	10	90	70	11	12	8		7	93
Sivaganga	38	63	52	42	6	1		15	85
Pondy	21	80	67	15	14	5		5	95

The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color. 

	Vote Share %
Constituency	DMK+	NDA	ADMK+	Cong	Comm	Others
Kanyakumari	4.0	46.0	24.8	23.2	2.4	0.0
Nagapattinam	25.2	23.6	41.2	10.0	0.0	0.0
Arakonam	28.4	21.6	47.2	2.4	4.9	0.0
Vellore	24.8	28.0	28.4	18.0	0.0	0.0
Krishnagiri	28.8	25.4	36.0	9.0	0.8	0.0
Mayiladuthurai	22.8	30.4	36.0	8.8	1.9	0.0
Nilgris	2.4	50.8	19.6	19.6	0.0	6.8
Chidambaram	31.6	30.4	35.2	2.8	0.0	0.0
Tirunelveli	26.0	19.1	46.7	4.2	4.0	0.0
Tiruppur	19.0	24.2	38.4	6.0	4.9	7.5
Trichy	32.0	22.0	41.0	5.0	0.0	0.0
Madurai	36.0	16.0	38.0	5.0	5.0	0.0
Tenkasi	23.0	22.7	42.0	4.0	4.2	4.1
Tuticorin	28.0	23.8	41.0	6.0	1.2	0.0
Karur	28.0	17.4	44.0	5.0	0.0	5.6
Kanchipuram	27.0	19.0	46.0	8.0	0.0	0.0
Virudhunagar	22.5	27.0	39.8	7.3	3.4	0.0
North Chennai	30.0	24.0	35.0	5.0	6.0	0.0
Salem	24.0	26.0	42.0	4.0	4.0	0.0
Kadalur	20.0	28.0	44.0	3.1	4.9	0.0
Theni	30.3	22.0	40.0	4.3	3.4	0.0
Kovai	17.0	37.0	39.0	4.0	3.0	0.0
Ramnad	31.1	24.0	38.0	4.8	2.1	0.0
Tiruvallur	32.0	16.0	44.0	4.0	4.0	0.0
Dindugul	26.6	20.8	38.6	9.0	5.0	0.0
Sriperumpudur	32.9	24.4	39.7	3.0	0.0	0.0
Erode	31.0	22.0	40.4	6.6	0.0	0.0
Dharmapuri	32.7	28.6	34.0	4.7	0.0	0.0
Vilupuram	31.0	25.9	36.7	4.0	2.4	0.0
Perambalur	35.0	23.7	35.0	6.3	0.0	0.0
Arani	29.0	30.0	37.6	3.4	0.0	0.0
Pollachi	28.6	31.6	35.8	4.0	0.0	0.0
Tiruvannamalai	34.0	22.0	36.0	5.0	3.0	0.0
South Chennai	32.4	30.0	34.2	3.4	0.0	0.0
Kallakurichi	33.2	27.0	35.4	4.4	0.0	0.0
Central Chennai	35.6	24.0	35.0	3.4	2.0	0.0
Namakkal	31.0	29.0	38.0	2.0	0.0	0.0
Tanjore	34.2	25.4	36.0	2.1	2.3	0.0
Sivaganga	29.2	25.2	33.4	12.2	0.0	0.0
Pondy	18.0	18.0	20.6	29.4	0.0	0.0

Note* Where the gap between winner & 2nd place is < 10% is treated as close - and subject to change based on the campaign undertaken.  

Methodology

The methodology followed for summarizing the data shared by Thanthi TV is as follows. 

UPA sentiment is the average of the % of respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.  

• Has UPA-2 delivered on its promises? 
• Do you want to see UPA come back to power again? 

AAP sentiment is the % of the respondents who are aware about AAP and have expressed openness to vote for AAP.  i.e.  Favourable (Q3 Yes * Q4 Yes/100)  Against (100 - Favorable) 

• Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party ? 
• If yes, Will you vote for the Aam Aadmi Party ? 

PM sentiment is the average of the % of the respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.  

• Whom do you desire to see as Prime Minister? 
• Given the problems of India, whom do you think as PM can solve them? 

Thanthi TV also shares the vote share % in a nested manner. The exact figures are computed using the appropriate formula. 

Thanthi TV also shares data about another question on the likelihood of Jayalalitha becoming the PM. The answers are YES, NO and MAY BE. But that question is not considered in the reporting done on this blog post.