** Updated on 10/Apr/14 on Telecast up to 09/Apr/14 with 40 / 40 constituencies ***
** NDA Mega Alliance is Confirmed. Congress and Communists are now assumed to contest separately **
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary **
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary **
** NO MORE UPDATES - THESE ARE FINAL FIGURES **
Thanthi TV is one of the leading Tamil news channels. It is owned by the Dina-thanthi group which sells the print daily with the same name. The group is highly respected, has no declared political leanings and has a track record of seven decades. Thanthi TV conducted a pre-poll survey across 40 Loksabha constituencies of Tamilnadu in the month of January 2014. The questionnaire had 24 questions for respondents to answer. The total sample size across 40 constituencies was 20,000 - one of the largest ever in TV history.
The results from the survey are presented constituency wise every week day (Monday to Friday) at 9.30 PM IST on Thanthi TV. The program started on 3rd-Feb-2014. The TV show presents the pre-poll survey results; along with detailed analysis by a local expert, assembly constituency wise sentiment of people & open issues. The video clips are also available online here. All copyrights of this survey rest with the source. The only motivation to publish the summary of the results is for benefit of audience, who do not understand Tamil.
This blog post will be updated regularly based on the results shared on a daily basis. Please bookmark this web-page and keep visiting to get an update.
Summary - Region wise
In this section, I present the summary of results region-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added to the Details Section.
Winners
Winners
|
Region
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Declared
|
TOTAL
|
|
Chennai
|
1
|
|
3
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
|
North
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
10
|
10
|
|
Delta
|
1
|
|
5
|
|
|
6
|
6
|
|
Kongu
|
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
9
|
|
South
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
10
|
|
Pondy
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
1
|
|
STATE
|
2
|
2
|
35
|
1
|
0
|
40
|
40
|
Second Place: ADMK+: 5 NDA: 10 DMK+: 25 Cong: 0
Note* 23 / 40 constituencies declared to as close-call within the margin of error of 10% - which is subject to change based on campaign. Based on margins the projected range of seats for the parties are given below.
ADMK+: 15 to 38
NDA: 2 to 7
DMK: 0 to 15
UPA Sentiment - The % of respondents who are either in favor or against UPA.
PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for.
AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP.
PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for.
AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP.
|
Region
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Others
|
|
Chennai
|
32.7
|
25.6
|
36.0
|
3.7
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
|
North
|
29.1
|
24.8
|
39.1
|
5.5
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
|
Delta
|
29.5
|
23.8
|
38.9
|
6.2
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
|
Kongu
|
23.8
|
30.5
|
35.9
|
6.7
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
|
South
|
25.7
|
24.7
|
38.2
|
8.0
|
3.1
|
0.4
|
|
Pondy
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
20.6
|
29.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
STATE
|
27.2
|
25.8
|
37.3
|
6.9
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
The Alliance Vote-share is graphically shown below.
The Alliances are :-
DMK+ - DMK, VCK, PT, MMK
NDA - BJP, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, KMDK
ADMK+ - ADMK + Smaller allies
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately
For the purpose of summarizing 39 constituencies in Tamilnadu are divided into 5 regions.
Chennai (4) - North, Central, South Chennai, & Sriperumpudur,
North (10) - Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Arakonam, Arani, Vellore, TVMalai, 4 in South Arcot
Delta (6) - Trichy, Permbalur, Thanjavur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Karur
Kongu (9) - K'giri, D'puri, Salem, Namakkal, Erode, Tiruppur, Kovai, Pollachi, Nilgris
South (10) - Madurai, Dindugal, Ramnad, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tuticorin, Nellai, Tenkasi, KanyaKumari
Details - Constituency Wise
In this section, I present the details constituency-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added. The methodology that I have followed to compute the numbers from the survey questions shared by Thanthi TV is discussed at the end of this post.
The below table gives a summary of "sentiment" of people constituency wise.
The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color.
|
UPA Sentiment
|
PM Sentiment
|
AAP Sentiment
|
|||||||
|
Constituency
|
Favor
|
Against
|
NaMO
|
RaGa
|
Jaya
|
Others
|
Favor
|
Against
|
|
|
Kanyakumari
|
34
|
67
|
56
|
28
|
16
|
1
|
1
|
99
|
|
|
Nagapattinam
|
18
|
82
|
78
|
13
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Arakonam
|
21
|
80
|
54
|
21
|
20
|
6
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Vellore
|
44
|
57
|
54
|
42
|
5
|
0
|
34
|
66
|
|
|
Krishnagiri
|
11
|
90
|
69
|
12
|
20
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Mayiladuthurai
|
15
|
86
|
72
|
14
|
13
|
2
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Nilgris
|
10
|
90
|
51
|
18
|
21
|
11
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Chidambaram
|
7
|
93
|
75
|
8
|
15
|
3
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Tirunelveli
|
25
|
75
|
56
|
23
|
15
|
7
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tiruppur
|
17
|
83
|
51
|
14
|
24
|
11
|
3
|
97
|
|
|
Trichy
|
34
|
66
|
53
|
26
|
21
|
1
|
22
|
78
|
|
|
Madurai
|
34
|
67
|
47
|
23
|
24
|
7
|
15
|
85
|
|
|
Tenkasi
|
22
|
78
|
52
|
20
|
26
|
3
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tuticorin
|
26
|
74
|
50
|
27
|
20
|
4
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Karur
|
23
|
77
|
67
|
17
|
10
|
7
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Kanchipuram
|
36
|
65
|
51
|
37
|
13
|
0
|
1
|
99
|
|
|
Virudhunagar
|
35
|
65
|
52
|
41
|
8
|
0
|
20
|
80
|
|
|
North Chennai
|
30
|
70
|
52
|
20
|
28
|
1
|
8
|
92
|
|
|
Salem
|
17
|
84
|
78
|
19
|
4
|
0
|
28
|
72
|
|
|
Kadalur
|
39
|
62
|
61
|
34
|
6
|
0
|
18
|
82
|
|
|
Theni
|
38
|
62
|
54
|
26
|
18
|
3
|
29
|
71
|
|
|
Kovai
|
14
|
86
|
59
|
18
|
19
|
6
|
23
|
77
|
|
|
Ramnad
|
13
|
88
|
74
|
16
|
11
|
0
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tiruvallur
|
29
|
71
|
51
|
38
|
12
|
0
|
17
|
83
|
|
|
Dindugul
|
42
|
58
|
46
|
36
|
16
|
4
|
20
|
80
|
|
|
Sriperumpudur
|
35
|
65
|
52
|
31
|
13
|
5
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Erode
|
29
|
71
|
68
|
26
|
6
|
1
|
13
|
87
|
|
|
Dharmapuri
|
20
|
80
|
67
|
23
|
11
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Vilupuram
|
20
|
80
|
52
|
19
|
29
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Perambalur
|
10
|
91
|
64
|
9
|
22
|
6
|
17
|
83
|
|
|
Arani
|
13
|
87
|
63
|
14
|
21
|
4
|
4
|
96
|
|
|
Pollachi
|
22
|
79
|
38
|
30
|
16
|
17
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Tiruvannamalai
|
26
|
74
|
60
|
25
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
84
|
|
|
South Chennai
|
43
|
58
|
48
|
34
|
18
|
2
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Kallakurichi
|
16
|
85
|
62
|
13
|
21
|
4
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Central Chennai
|
23
|
78
|
45
|
20
|
27
|
9
|
3
|
97
|
|
|
Namakkal
|
27
|
73
|
48
|
19
|
30
|
4
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Tanjore
|
10
|
90
|
70
|
11
|
12
|
8
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Sivaganga
|
38
|
63
|
52
|
42
|
6
|
1
|
15
|
85
|
|
|
Pondy
|
21
|
80
|
67
|
15
|
14
|
5
|
5
|
95
|
|
The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color.
|
Vote Share %
|
|||||||
|
Constituency
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Others
|
|
|
Kanyakumari
|
4.0
|
46.0
|
24.8
|
23.2
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Nagapattinam
|
25.2
|
23.6
|
41.2
|
10.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Arakonam
|
28.4
|
21.6
|
47.2
|
2.4
|
4.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Vellore
|
24.8
|
28.0
|
28.4
|
18.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Krishnagiri
|
28.8
|
25.4
|
36.0
|
9.0
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
|
|
Mayiladuthurai
|
22.8
|
30.4
|
36.0
|
8.8
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Nilgris
|
2.4
|
50.8
|
19.6
|
19.6
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
|
|
Chidambaram
|
31.6
|
30.4
|
35.2
|
2.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tirunelveli
|
26.0
|
19.1
|
46.7
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruppur
|
19.0
|
24.2
|
38.4
|
6.0
|
4.9
|
7.5
|
|
|
Trichy
|
32.0
|
22.0
|
41.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Madurai
|
36.0
|
16.0
|
38.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tenkasi
|
23.0
|
22.7
|
42.0
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
|
|
Tuticorin
|
28.0
|
23.8
|
41.0
|
6.0
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
|
|
Karur
|
28.0
|
17.4
|
44.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
5.6
|
|
|
Kanchipuram
|
27.0
|
19.0
|
46.0
|
8.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Virudhunagar
|
22.5
|
27.0
|
39.8
|
7.3
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
North Chennai
|
30.0
|
24.0
|
35.0
|
5.0
|
6.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Salem
|
24.0
|
26.0
|
42.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kadalur
|
20.0
|
28.0
|
44.0
|
3.1
|
4.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Theni
|
30.3
|
22.0
|
40.0
|
4.3
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kovai
|
17.0
|
37.0
|
39.0
|
4.0
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Ramnad
|
31.1
|
24.0
|
38.0
|
4.8
|
2.1
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruvallur
|
32.0
|
16.0
|
44.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Dindugul
|
26.6
|
20.8
|
38.6
|
9.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Sriperumpudur
|
32.9
|
24.4
|
39.7
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Erode
|
31.0
|
22.0
|
40.4
|
6.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Dharmapuri
|
32.7
|
28.6
|
34.0
|
4.7
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Vilupuram
|
31.0
|
25.9
|
36.7
|
4.0
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Perambalur
|
35.0
|
23.7
|
35.0
|
6.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Arani
|
29.0
|
30.0
|
37.6
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Pollachi
|
28.6
|
31.6
|
35.8
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruvannamalai
|
34.0
|
22.0
|
36.0
|
5.0
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
South Chennai
|
32.4
|
30.0
|
34.2
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kallakurichi
|
33.2
|
27.0
|
35.4
|
4.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Central Chennai
|
35.6
|
24.0
|
35.0
|
3.4
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Namakkal
|
31.0
|
29.0
|
38.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tanjore
|
34.2
|
25.4
|
36.0
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
0.0
|
|
|
Sivaganga
|
29.2
|
25.2
|
33.4
|
12.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Pondy
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
20.6
|
29.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Note* Where the gap between winner & 2nd place is < 10% is treated as close - and subject to change based on the campaign undertaken.
Methodology
The methodology followed for summarizing the data shared by Thanthi TV is as follows.
UPA sentiment is the average of the % of respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.
- Has UPA-2 delivered on its promises?
- Do you want to see UPA come back to power again?
AAP sentiment is the % of the respondents who are aware about AAP and have expressed openness to vote for AAP. i.e. Favourable (Q3 Yes * Q4 Yes/100) Against (100 - Favorable)
- Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party ?
- If yes, Will you vote for the Aam Aadmi Party ?
PM sentiment is the average of the % of the respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.
- Whom do you desire to see as Prime Minister?
- Given the problems of India, whom do you think as PM can solve them?
Thanthi TV also shares the vote share % in a nested manner. The exact figures are computed using the appropriate formula.
Thanthi TV also shares data about another question on the likelihood of Jayalalitha becoming the PM. The answers are YES, NO and MAY BE. But that question is not considered in the reporting done on this blog post.
Please watch another popular tamil TV Puthiyathalaimurai from 10th to 14th Feb at 9 pm onwards for another opinion poll
ReplyDeleteThanks SIr. Will follow that too !
DeleteWaiting for other constituencies. Very Comprehensive Work. Report is presented clearly too.
ReplyDeleteThank you! Great to hear that ! That is encouraging!. I promise to have an update at-least once a week or may be twice (if possible). Re-generating all the tables and graphs are a cumbersome process to do daily. It is sad that the channel is releasing one constituency per day and hence will take 8 weeks (end of march) to finish the whole haul of Tamilnadu ! :)
DeleteSome of the tables aren't visible as they've gone out of the page and the library background image makes it impossible to decipher the contents. Please edit the page.
ReplyDeleteIt seems to be a problem only in the mobile version. The web version is fine. So on mobile please use the display in web version (link) which will appear at the bottom to get the web version. I will meanwhile change the background to make it readable. But other than that, can't reduce table width, let me see what else can be done.
DeleteThanks for your updates.
ReplyDeleteCongress is likely to join hands with DMDK and fight separately. In that case, will the analysis change drastically?
What will happen if both Congress and DMDK join hands with DMK?
I don't expect immediate answers from you as I know it is going to be a tedious job. But please keep all the above in mind in your final analysis
Changing the Alliances is easy. We just have to total the relevant cells. At the moment raw data is given in this blog. Hence if some other Alliance is shaping up then one can total the raw numbers differently and obtain that result.
DeleteI still think DMDK will go it alone, and Cong will join hands with DMK. Let us see how it goes. But Vijayakanth has come back empty handed from Delhi. So his choices are DMK, BJP or alone. If Cong joins hands with DMK, then Captain wont go there because he wont be happy to contest just 11 constituencies in such a mega alliance. I think he will start making overtures towards BJP next. But I just hope sense prevails and BJP doesn't take him in.
BJP may not want Captain in their fold as it may affect post poll scenario. If NDA falls short of majority, then BJP may look to Amma for Support and in that case, it will be in a better position if Captain is not in their alliance. Vaiko may be acceptable to Amma but not Captain
ReplyDeletei dont think so..why not captain n amma in same fold post poll ??
Deleteyou are right. All the parties and their alliance expiry date is may 16. May 17, all the allies will undergo a reshuffle. In that case, DMDK will certainly be left alone, which that party deserve.
DeleteThanks for updates. Your analysis definitely gives better clarity
ReplyDeleteThis is bit confusing ..Refer the picture here. Are all the calculation correct?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10152151717783463&set=a.10152122835413463.1073741844.646363462&type=1
ThanthiTV does the daily program where they share the vote share % using 2 nested questions. But the final vote shares they put up in the summary program which is telecasted every 8 constiuencies once - does not match with their daily program. So what I do is, I diligently update the daily ones as is, and then once the summary comes out, I revise the numbers. The table now reflects the numbers which you show on your link !!.. Hence expect the Virudhu Nagar and North Chennai Nos shared above, to change when the next Summary episode comes out on 11th March !.
DeleteI am still confused on how they can have two completely different numbers altogether for a same constituency. I am posting their daily number as well as the summary numbers on twitter @shankarcps . As you mentioned I am still confused on the logic. I will try to get in touch with Thanthi TV , lets see how they justify
DeleteI don't know why BJP guys are literally stooping in favor of DMDK & PMK......In this election undecided / neutral voters are going in favor of Narendra Modi.....so today BJP in Tamilnadu commands around 20% votes because of Modi......so naturally they should be contesting more than 14/15 seats and the DMDK & PMK shall be given only 7 or 8 seats at the maximum.....but BJP has foolishly (generosity??) agreed for 13 or 14 seats for DMDK!!!! This is ridiculous and foolish....!!! I hope they chuck out these type of parties from their alliance and form an alliance which gives leadership role to BJP...and not the other way around....!!!
ReplyDeleteIn every elections, its the neutral / undecided voters who decide the fate of winner / loser...Every Party in Tamilnadu has a committed voters who vote for their respective parties in-spite of any situation.....so ADMK (28-30%), DMK (24-25%), CONGRESS (8-10%), DMDK (6-7%), MDMK (3-4%), PMK (4-5%), COMMUNISTS (3-4%), BJP (3-4%)......which comes to around 80-85% totally....so the remaining 15 to 20% neutral voters / undecided voters are the one who tilt the election results.....
So in this election, this 15 to 20% in going in favor of Narendra Modi which gives BJP around 20%. Also another fact remains that in this election, young & first time voters who constitute around 15% of total voters are inclined towards Narendra Modi.....So all said and done, BJP should at best go alone, or if its not possible can contest along with MDMK & PMK by allotting 7-8 seats each to them.....plus some other parties IJK, NR cong can be roped in........its sheer waste of seats for DMDK.......
Hope better sense prevails in BJP.......why should they sacrifice for DMDK?? I really fail to understand this.....
You are more or less echoing what many in the social media are saying sir ! I think it is a fair point, if these survey numbers are true. However there is a omerta policy in political party negotiations that alliance will be based on facts and not survey numbers. Hence they can only use the past election vote share percentages. That is why this anamoly is happening. The only way to break this deadlock (for future elections at least) is for BJP to ditch both PMK and DMDK, and contest with MDMK, IJK etc. and show their 20%. Once they have done it in one election, it becomes a fact and in future BJP will get more respect. People can also see how low do the PMK and DMDK numbers go when they are not allied to anyone else.
DeleteBut the trouble with this approach is the first past line system of elections we have in India. If BJP+ does this, they can prove their 20% vote share, but wont be able to win more than 2 seats; as votes will be split and a dominant party like ADMK or DMK will walk as winner. BJP is indulging in these negotiations to ensure the dominant parties dont have a walk-over simply because of the vote-split. However as Pon.R has said, 12th is the cut-off, if the negotiations dont conclude by 12th March, then they are saying, BJP will go with limited allies. Let us see what happens.
Hi....now that that BJP has sewn-up a mega alliance for the ensuing LokSabha polls, i would like to share some points here:-
DeleteMany media pre-poll surveys(including Thanthi TV) and also Arm-chair critics who sit in Air-conditioned rooms predict that it will be AIADMK who will get majority of seats (around 30) in the Loksabha elections....but i differ.....simply because that if ADMK is that much stronger vote-share wise etc...then they should have won in 2009 too...bcoz at that time, they had a strong pre-poll alliance (with ADMK+PMK+MDMK+Communists) in the front comprising almost 43-45% vote-share compared to DMK+Congress alliance which normally has around 35-37% share only....but then in 2009 results it was DMK+Cong which had the last laugh as they got 43% compared to only 38% share of ADMK front....i.e DMK front got 28 seats and ADMK front got only 12 seats though going by poll arithmetic it was ADMK which had a stronger front....so what does it mean?? very simple, DMK+Congress could project Manmohan as the Prime Ministerial Candidate & also the credentials of UPA whereas ADMK front could not project anyone as they were in THIRD FRONT (3RD FRONT).....In the same way in this election too, ADMK though numerically stronger (as a party) will get defeated as people vote for a stable government in the Lok Sabha Elections, they never vote for hanky-panky governments.....and BJP which has Narendra Modi as its PM candidate will swing the votes in favor of NDA.....I really pity JJ for spoiling her own victory....
Personally i feel this election will throw-up a surprise in BJP's favor....the stars are aligned in favor of Narendra Modi (i.e BJP) in TN....this time
BJP would be finishing as front-runner in TN....though many people (psephologists & Pro-left/Pro-JJ guys) are saying that BJP front is not going to do well....i differ....my prediction on vote share would be thus
BJP front - around 35% (DMDK-8%+PMK-5%+MDMK-4%+Others-2%+BJP-3%+NaMo Wave-13%) and the seats would be around 28 to 30 Seats
ADMK - around 32% and the seats would be 10-12 seats
DMK front - around 23% and seats would 'ZERO' or at best 1 or 2 seat (due to luck factor)
Congress - around 8% and seats - 'ZERO'
Communists - around 2% and seats - 'ZERO'
Let's see what's in store for India and that will be known on May 16!!!
And also a word before i leave....i'm not a BJP cadre or not even a sympathizer, but a person who supports the truth....i support whichever is good...and though in present day politics, we have not much of a choice in going for clean & honest patriotic candidates, the choice is always between a Looter and a pickpocket, and we have no other option but to go for a better party rather than the Best Party!!!! In this way, i feel, BJP is the need of the day in this election for India.....Hope the future is kind to India by installing a BJP led Government at the Centre.....with TN contributing handsomely by polling in favor of NDA led alliance....
Thanks a lot...
Jeyahar T.S
Jeyahar, each election is different. Most of the people decide their choice emotionally and not logically. So it is the chemistry rather than maths of the people that decides the winner. Last time whole India thought M.singh would be the best PM rather than congress the best party. Unlike this time there was no much of anti-incumbency last time. This time, In a 5-cornered race, with 1.5 to 2 lakh of first-time voters per constituency, no one could clearly predict the winner. As of now, we can say ADMK has an edge. 2+1 may not be 3, it could also be 1 in politics. When you stand alone your identity is different and when you join someone it is entirely different. As far as I would say BJP will get 20% of votes on an avg and they could score just 3-5 in total.
DeleteHi Varma, its true that every election is different. I agree that in politics anything can happen. In this election many people believe ADMK has an edge. I don't know its true or not. But from my interactions with people in my area and also in workplace etc, i can sense people want change..and Ofcourse, there is not much anti-incumbency again ADMK but still people who benefited from the ADMK freebies are inclined to consider to vote for MODI..and in fact even people who want to vote for ADMK believe that ultimately ADMK will end up in supporting NaMo after elections!!!!
DeletePersonally i'm against both the Dravidian Kazhagams...They have made a fool of Tamilians for the past 47 years...and i feel sad to see Tamil people getting repeatedly cheated by two Dravidian Parties....JJ is slightly better than MK, whereas MK is worse, JJ is bad...there is not much to differentiate between the two...!!! Unfortunately in a democracy its the quantity of people who matter rather than the quality of people...!!!
For me those who vote for these two Kazhagams are supporters of TASMAC, Freebies, Lazy Idiots....i'm angry with these type of people who refuse to use their brains (Do such people have brain at all, which is a separate issue)
All said and done, If ADMK or DMK wins in these elections, then even GOD ALMIGHTY can't save Tamil Nadu....
do u really think moodi can save TN. R U really kidding? BJP is just playing behind the screen. They are all cheating people like having the name modi, telling that magic happens in gujrat. BJP is not a new party. we all know about that party. They are mesmerizing people to get the central crown. Dont get fooled. All other parties also on the same way. Somebody must rise up to take india to right path.
DeleteWhile concerning the allied parties about the parties in BJP(NDA). It is an alliance that is formed which may definitely form as a 2nd largest party in tamilnadu.Even they cant get first place,it is a good trial for them in future.My personal opinion vote for central parties to avoid Hanging Government.Why cant we vote for the party which u want in central??????
ReplyDeleteHumble request for survey.For parliamentary election the survey should be for 543 Constiencies and not only for 40.pls extend the survey.
ReplyDeleteWhen is the next update? TIme for today?
ReplyDeleteAshish
Done sir !. Thank you !
DeleteThanks,
DeleteCan u revert t showing BJP and others differently! Why merge all as NDA in first table!!!
Ashish
Ashish, ThanthiTV have stopped giving break-up party-wise as soon as the formal discussions on Seat sharing started. Hence past two weeks have been only showing aggregated NDA figures. This format will have to continue going forward as the break-up of NDA alliance is not being shared by ThanthiTV anymore.
DeleteA herculean task, done with great accuracy. Thank u for this job. please do updates at least once in a week. Also provide vote share after declaration of NDA alliance.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the appreciation ! Have updated the constiuencies declared this week & also the NDA alliance. I am currently doing the updates weekly once on Sundays.
DeleteSir.. thank you for summarizing this. Appreciate your interest and contribution.
ReplyDeleteThank you for the appreciation Sir.
Deletedear sir thanthi you r supporting admk govt is corpation no water no power bus fare high they sell amma water 10 ruppes only besest change your name admk thanthi
ReplyDeleteu buy water in bustand and railway station for 20 rs without asking any question with some xxxx brand..if govt seel for 10 rs..its wrong....becuase of ur people..dmk still cheats tmailadu...
DeleteThanks for reading the blog. This blog is not owned by ThanthiTV & I am only doing a literal translation of their content into English for audience who do not know Tamil. Hence if you are unhappy with the figures - you should post the comments on ThanthiTV website. Having said that, I dont think ThanthiTV favours any particular party. They are diligently sharing the figures they collected from the ground (in the last week of Jan) by Kris Infomedia. There is NO EDITORIALIZING OF INFO. Secondly, electricity is a complex issue - even Vikatan survey last week found that only tiny minority (4%) think ADMK govt's power situation is worse than DMK. Water and Municipality issues normally do not reflect much on Parliament elections - because people understand they are voting for National issues & not for state/local issues. There is also a high set of inertial factors that favor people to vote Two leaves, without applying their mind - because many people still favor the socialistic policies & freebies of the ADMK govt. The ongoing sibling rivalry in DMK, and the fact that DMK was in power at centre for past 15 years may have led to a certain level of anti-incumbency too. So these factors may explain why despite being unhappy with state government, or despite wanting Modi as PM, people may actually go and vote for a party which will not address their true sense of satisfaction.
Deletehi, if a state govt is able to sell 1 litre bottle at rs 10 in busstand and other public places. then why is that RAILNEER ( water botltle ) is sold at rs 22 in rly stns across india. even central govt is cheating us ...,,,
Deletesome water we buy for rs 20+ is too bad in quality , hope u had drank TN govt bottle water,,, drink and then u will know the difference ..
Please work out for last minutes Swings in favoure of NAMO.
ReplyDeleteNow the elections are close by - the next option is Exit polls - I suggest you follow the Exit polls published on http://www.centreright.in - which is an unique initiative where you get exit poll data - online within 48 hours of the close of the polling.
DeleteMost of your statements/Calculation are wrong as per Daily thanthi paper. Also paper & tv show report varies.
ReplyDeleteTotally false in many cases ! Particularly in namakkal the BJP alliance is said to win with kongu in its alliance...! Please don't make a mock-out favouring the ADMK !
ReplyDeleteThanks for reading the blog post. I only do diligent translation of what ThanthiTV says in Tamil to English for the benefit of people who dont know Tamil. Hence if you are unhappy with the figures they are best posted on the ThanthiTV website. But having said that, ThanthiTV publishes these survey numbers based on their data collection in January. Now the ground reality of any constituency may be vastly different - because the grand alliance of NDA has been announced - and campaigning by various parties has started to take place. So please consume these figures based on the fact that the ground data collection was done in end of January.
DeleteNamakkal: In 2009 KNMK (where there was no split in the party) has got 6.2%, DMDK 9.4%, BJP 0.94%
DeleteIn 2011, KNMK joined DMK, but out of 6 constituencies ADMK won 4 and DMDK 2 with an avg difference of 26520 votes. DMK, PMK, KNMK, INC all together, if not able to win, at least the victory margin should have been less to believe their ability. In 2014, KNMK has been split, DMDK has lost its good opinion to some extent, only positive factor is modi wave but that will not yield much.
Constituency BJP Cong Comm ADMK DMK DMDK MDMK PMK Others
ReplyDeleteKovai 51.2 5.6 23.2 14.6 3.6 1.2 0.6 0 0
This is statement of Thanthi Daily, now refer kovai in the table.
Thanks for reading the blog post.The objective of this blog post is to provide diligent translation of the data shared by ThanthiTV in tamil into English. I do not want to mix up multiple sources of information - because then it would only be fair that I do the same level of research on other constituencies as well. But I take your point that the figures shared by Thanthi TV and Daily Thanthi can be discrepant with each other. Let us wait for the next summary show on 08/April and then I will revise the numbers for the last 8 constituencies - exactly how I have done in the past. If those figures do not tally with Daily Thanthi newspaper - then it may be worth asking the Question on ThanthiTV website to seek a clarification. Fine ?
DeleteFirstly I appreciate your effort in sharing the data in the blog which doesn't even done by owner website. I just bringing the fact to you & other readers. I have posted same in their website as well. I am closely watching PT, thanthi tv & paper like you and tabulated in my PC for 40 constituencies. But I don't have a blog to share that. Anyway congrats.......
Deletein central chennai maran will lose in big margin....
ReplyDeletethanthi paper is good since couple of months back. now they are reporting news in favour of admk almost like jaya tv. what happen to thanthi paper owner? no newspaper should be a slave of anybody...... any party. thanthi spreaded news about rasa....2g. similarly they should really print the news of ammas........ 4000 crore. thanthi really stopped the news from spreading among common people.
ReplyDelete