** Updated on 10/Apr/14 on Telecast up to 09/Apr/14 with 40 / 40 constituencies ***
** NDA Mega Alliance is Confirmed. Congress and Communists are now assumed to contest separately **
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary **
** Major revisions made to constituencies 1 to 40 owing to revised vote-shares shared on the summary program telecast on 13/Feb, 26/Feb, 12/Mar, 25/Mar and 09/Apr. Thanthi TV telecasts a summary program for every 8 constituencies, and the vote-shares presented there are generally deviant from nested figures shared in daily program. I am Not sure of their underlying logic, but all I can do is diligently revise the numbers when they present the summary **
** NO MORE UPDATES - THESE ARE FINAL FIGURES **
Thanthi TV is one of the leading Tamil news channels. It is owned by the Dina-thanthi group which sells the print daily with the same name. The group is highly respected, has no declared political leanings and has a track record of seven decades. Thanthi TV conducted a pre-poll survey across 40 Loksabha constituencies of Tamilnadu in the month of January 2014. The questionnaire had 24 questions for respondents to answer. The total sample size across 40 constituencies was 20,000 - one of the largest ever in TV history.
The results from the survey are presented constituency wise every week day (Monday to Friday) at 9.30 PM IST on Thanthi TV. The program started on 3rd-Feb-2014. The TV show presents the pre-poll survey results; along with detailed analysis by a local expert, assembly constituency wise sentiment of people & open issues. The video clips are also available online here. All copyrights of this survey rest with the source. The only motivation to publish the summary of the results is for benefit of audience, who do not understand Tamil.
This blog post will be updated regularly based on the results shared on a daily basis. Please bookmark this web-page and keep visiting to get an update.
Summary - Region wise
In this section, I present the summary of results region-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added to the Details Section.
Winners
Winners
|
Region
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Declared
|
TOTAL
|
|
Chennai
|
1
|
|
3
|
|
|
4
|
4
|
|
North
|
|
|
10
|
|
|
10
|
10
|
|
Delta
|
1
|
|
5
|
|
|
6
|
6
|
|
Kongu
|
|
1
|
8
|
|
|
9
|
9
|
|
South
|
|
1
|
9
|
|
|
10
|
10
|
|
Pondy
|
|
|
|
1
|
|
1
|
1
|
|
STATE
|
2
|
2
|
35
|
1
|
0
|
40
|
40
|
Second Place: ADMK+: 5 NDA: 10 DMK+: 25 Cong: 0
Note* 23 / 40 constituencies declared to as close-call within the margin of error of 10% - which is subject to change based on campaign. Based on margins the projected range of seats for the parties are given below.
ADMK+: 15 to 38
NDA: 2 to 7
DMK: 0 to 15
UPA Sentiment - The % of respondents who are either in favor or against UPA.
PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for.
AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP.
PM Sentiment - The % of respondents who desire to see a particular candidate as Prime Minister; independent of whom they are actually going to vote for.
AAP Sentiment -The % of respondents who are open to voting for Aam Aadmi Party; independent of their current declared preference. Note* Depending on the candidate selection and canvassing by AAP, a part of this group may switch to vote towards AAP.
|
Region
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Others
|
|
Chennai
|
32.7
|
25.6
|
36.0
|
3.7
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
|
North
|
29.1
|
24.8
|
39.1
|
5.5
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
|
Delta
|
29.5
|
23.8
|
38.9
|
6.2
|
0.7
|
0.9
|
|
Kongu
|
23.8
|
30.5
|
35.9
|
6.7
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
|
South
|
25.7
|
24.7
|
38.2
|
8.0
|
3.1
|
0.4
|
|
Pondy
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
20.6
|
29.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
STATE
|
27.2
|
25.8
|
37.3
|
6.9
|
1.9
|
0.6
|
The Alliance Vote-share is graphically shown below.
The Alliances are :-
DMK+ - DMK, VCK, PT, MMK
NDA - BJP, DMDK, MDMK, PMK, KMDK
ADMK+ - ADMK + Smaller allies
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately
Cong and Communists are assumed to contest separately
For the purpose of summarizing 39 constituencies in Tamilnadu are divided into 5 regions.
Chennai (4) - North, Central, South Chennai, & Sriperumpudur,
North (10) - Tiruvallur, Kanchipuram, Arakonam, Arani, Vellore, TVMalai, 4 in South Arcot
Delta (6) - Trichy, Permbalur, Thanjavur, Mayiladuthurai, Nagapattinam, Karur
Kongu (9) - K'giri, D'puri, Salem, Namakkal, Erode, Tiruppur, Kovai, Pollachi, Nilgris
South (10) - Madurai, Dindugal, Ramnad, Sivagangai, Virudhunagar, Theni, Tuticorin, Nellai, Tenkasi, KanyaKumari
Details - Constituency Wise
In this section, I present the details constituency-wise. The tables & graphs will be regularly updated as & when constituencies are added. The methodology that I have followed to compute the numbers from the survey questions shared by Thanthi TV is discussed at the end of this post.
The below table gives a summary of "sentiment" of people constituency wise.
The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color.
|
UPA Sentiment
|
PM Sentiment
|
AAP Sentiment
|
|||||||
|
Constituency
|
Favor
|
Against
|
NaMO
|
RaGa
|
Jaya
|
Others
|
Favor
|
Against
|
|
|
Kanyakumari
|
34
|
67
|
56
|
28
|
16
|
1
|
1
|
99
|
|
|
Nagapattinam
|
18
|
82
|
78
|
13
|
7
|
3
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Arakonam
|
21
|
80
|
54
|
21
|
20
|
6
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Vellore
|
44
|
57
|
54
|
42
|
5
|
0
|
34
|
66
|
|
|
Krishnagiri
|
11
|
90
|
69
|
12
|
20
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Mayiladuthurai
|
15
|
86
|
72
|
14
|
13
|
2
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Nilgris
|
10
|
90
|
51
|
18
|
21
|
11
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Chidambaram
|
7
|
93
|
75
|
8
|
15
|
3
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Tirunelveli
|
25
|
75
|
56
|
23
|
15
|
7
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tiruppur
|
17
|
83
|
51
|
14
|
24
|
11
|
3
|
97
|
|
|
Trichy
|
34
|
66
|
53
|
26
|
21
|
1
|
22
|
78
|
|
|
Madurai
|
34
|
67
|
47
|
23
|
24
|
7
|
15
|
85
|
|
|
Tenkasi
|
22
|
78
|
52
|
20
|
26
|
3
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tuticorin
|
26
|
74
|
50
|
27
|
20
|
4
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Karur
|
23
|
77
|
67
|
17
|
10
|
7
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Kanchipuram
|
36
|
65
|
51
|
37
|
13
|
0
|
1
|
99
|
|
|
Virudhunagar
|
35
|
65
|
52
|
41
|
8
|
0
|
20
|
80
|
|
|
North Chennai
|
30
|
70
|
52
|
20
|
28
|
1
|
8
|
92
|
|
|
Salem
|
17
|
84
|
78
|
19
|
4
|
0
|
28
|
72
|
|
|
Kadalur
|
39
|
62
|
61
|
34
|
6
|
0
|
18
|
82
|
|
|
Theni
|
38
|
62
|
54
|
26
|
18
|
3
|
29
|
71
|
|
|
Kovai
|
14
|
86
|
59
|
18
|
19
|
6
|
23
|
77
|
|
|
Ramnad
|
13
|
88
|
74
|
16
|
11
|
0
|
2
|
98
|
|
|
Tiruvallur
|
29
|
71
|
51
|
38
|
12
|
0
|
17
|
83
|
|
|
Dindugul
|
42
|
58
|
46
|
36
|
16
|
4
|
20
|
80
|
|
|
Sriperumpudur
|
35
|
65
|
52
|
31
|
13
|
5
|
9
|
91
|
|
|
Erode
|
29
|
71
|
68
|
26
|
6
|
1
|
13
|
87
|
|
|
Dharmapuri
|
20
|
80
|
67
|
23
|
11
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Vilupuram
|
20
|
80
|
52
|
19
|
29
|
0
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Perambalur
|
10
|
91
|
64
|
9
|
22
|
6
|
17
|
83
|
|
|
Arani
|
13
|
87
|
63
|
14
|
21
|
4
|
4
|
96
|
|
|
Pollachi
|
22
|
79
|
38
|
30
|
16
|
17
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Tiruvannamalai
|
26
|
74
|
60
|
25
|
12
|
4
|
16
|
84
|
|
|
South Chennai
|
43
|
58
|
48
|
34
|
18
|
2
|
11
|
89
|
|
|
Kallakurichi
|
16
|
85
|
62
|
13
|
21
|
4
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Central Chennai
|
23
|
78
|
45
|
20
|
27
|
9
|
3
|
97
|
|
|
Namakkal
|
27
|
73
|
48
|
19
|
30
|
4
|
14
|
86
|
|
|
Tanjore
|
10
|
90
|
70
|
11
|
12
|
8
|
7
|
93
|
|
|
Sivaganga
|
38
|
63
|
52
|
42
|
6
|
1
|
15
|
85
|
|
|
Pondy
|
21
|
80
|
67
|
15
|
14
|
5
|
5
|
95
|
|
The below table gives the Vote share% based on tentative alliances (suggested earlier). The projected winner is indicated in RED color. 2nd Place is in BLUE color.
|
Vote Share %
|
|||||||
|
Constituency
|
DMK+
|
NDA
|
ADMK+
|
Cong
|
Comm
|
Others
|
|
|
Kanyakumari
|
4.0
|
46.0
|
24.8
|
23.2
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Nagapattinam
|
25.2
|
23.6
|
41.2
|
10.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Arakonam
|
28.4
|
21.6
|
47.2
|
2.4
|
4.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Vellore
|
24.8
|
28.0
|
28.4
|
18.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Krishnagiri
|
28.8
|
25.4
|
36.0
|
9.0
|
0.8
|
0.0
|
|
|
Mayiladuthurai
|
22.8
|
30.4
|
36.0
|
8.8
|
1.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Nilgris
|
2.4
|
50.8
|
19.6
|
19.6
|
0.0
|
6.8
|
|
|
Chidambaram
|
31.6
|
30.4
|
35.2
|
2.8
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tirunelveli
|
26.0
|
19.1
|
46.7
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruppur
|
19.0
|
24.2
|
38.4
|
6.0
|
4.9
|
7.5
|
|
|
Trichy
|
32.0
|
22.0
|
41.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Madurai
|
36.0
|
16.0
|
38.0
|
5.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tenkasi
|
23.0
|
22.7
|
42.0
|
4.0
|
4.2
|
4.1
|
|
|
Tuticorin
|
28.0
|
23.8
|
41.0
|
6.0
|
1.2
|
0.0
|
|
|
Karur
|
28.0
|
17.4
|
44.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
5.6
|
|
|
Kanchipuram
|
27.0
|
19.0
|
46.0
|
8.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Virudhunagar
|
22.5
|
27.0
|
39.8
|
7.3
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
North Chennai
|
30.0
|
24.0
|
35.0
|
5.0
|
6.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Salem
|
24.0
|
26.0
|
42.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kadalur
|
20.0
|
28.0
|
44.0
|
3.1
|
4.9
|
0.0
|
|
|
Theni
|
30.3
|
22.0
|
40.0
|
4.3
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kovai
|
17.0
|
37.0
|
39.0
|
4.0
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Ramnad
|
31.1
|
24.0
|
38.0
|
4.8
|
2.1
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruvallur
|
32.0
|
16.0
|
44.0
|
4.0
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Dindugul
|
26.6
|
20.8
|
38.6
|
9.0
|
5.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Sriperumpudur
|
32.9
|
24.4
|
39.7
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Erode
|
31.0
|
22.0
|
40.4
|
6.6
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Dharmapuri
|
32.7
|
28.6
|
34.0
|
4.7
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Vilupuram
|
31.0
|
25.9
|
36.7
|
4.0
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
|
|
Perambalur
|
35.0
|
23.7
|
35.0
|
6.3
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Arani
|
29.0
|
30.0
|
37.6
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Pollachi
|
28.6
|
31.6
|
35.8
|
4.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tiruvannamalai
|
34.0
|
22.0
|
36.0
|
5.0
|
3.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
South Chennai
|
32.4
|
30.0
|
34.2
|
3.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Kallakurichi
|
33.2
|
27.0
|
35.4
|
4.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Central Chennai
|
35.6
|
24.0
|
35.0
|
3.4
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Namakkal
|
31.0
|
29.0
|
38.0
|
2.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Tanjore
|
34.2
|
25.4
|
36.0
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
0.0
|
|
|
Sivaganga
|
29.2
|
25.2
|
33.4
|
12.2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
|
Pondy
|
18.0
|
18.0
|
20.6
|
29.4
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
Note* Where the gap between winner & 2nd place is < 10% is treated as close - and subject to change based on the campaign undertaken.
Methodology
The methodology followed for summarizing the data shared by Thanthi TV is as follows.
UPA sentiment is the average of the % of respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.
- Has UPA-2 delivered on its promises?
- Do you want to see UPA come back to power again?
AAP sentiment is the % of the respondents who are aware about AAP and have expressed openness to vote for AAP. i.e. Favourable (Q3 Yes * Q4 Yes/100) Against (100 - Favorable)
- Have you heard about the Aam Aadmi Party ?
- If yes, Will you vote for the Aam Aadmi Party ?
PM sentiment is the average of the % of the respondents who voted YES/NO for following two questions.
- Whom do you desire to see as Prime Minister?
- Given the problems of India, whom do you think as PM can solve them?
Thanthi TV also shares the vote share % in a nested manner. The exact figures are computed using the appropriate formula.
Thanthi TV also shares data about another question on the likelihood of Jayalalitha becoming the PM. The answers are YES, NO and MAY BE. But that question is not considered in the reporting done on this blog post.
