This blog post in continuation with the earlier blog post on the Kumudam Reporter survey for 2014 elections. This is the English Translation of the Part-2 of the 2014 Lok Sabha pre-poll survey conducted by Kumudam Reporter Magazine and published in the issue dated 26.1.2014 (but appeared in the stands on 21.01.2014). The website of this magazine is here . It is a paid, subscriber only magazine for online consumption. All copyrights of this survey rests with the source. The only purpose of translating the results is for the benefit of people who don't read Tamil.
Quick Summary (my personal note)
- The best ever scenario for ADMK is to have a four-way (or even 5 or 6 way) contest whereby the opposition votes split. In a four-way contest, ADMK+ manages to come on top with 34.2% vote share. So Jayalalitha will be eagerly watching for the alliances (or the lack of it) among her opponents before she announces her own strategy.
- The best ever scenario for BJP is to form a mega alliance with MDMK, PMK and DMDK, which they are currently attempting. Under this scenario they can give a tough fight to ADMK+ as they are within 2% vote share of the leader, by managing to get 32.4% vote share. Even if the DMK and Congress tie-up they wont be able to beat BJP from the 2nd position in this scenario.
- The best ever scenario for DMK is to form a grand alliance with DMDK and Congress. They can thwart ADMK's plans and manage to come on top with 33.2% vote share in this scenario. ADMK+ comes close with 32.9% (less by 0.3%) leading to a neck to neck fight. While DMK is already negotiating with DMDK, they also need to rope Congress in. Without congress this alliance won't be able to challenge ADMK+ in the first past post electoral system.
- BJP which has had a 5% vote share at best in the past (in elections where they have not allied with any of the big Dravidian parties) but they are poised for their best ever finish in Tamilnadu in 2014. They alone have now managed to build a 19% vote share. With a mega alliance, they can get sizable seats in the LS polls. Survey reports say this wave has less to do with BJP as a party, but is more in favour of the persona of Modi and his Development Oriented Agenda.
- Captain Vijayakanth's DMDK has once again proved to remain the "game changer" in Tamilnadu elections. Although they have dropped their individual vote share by about 2% from their heydays, they still remain the deciding force. Hence the frantic parlays underway by both BJP and DMK to lure captain into an alliance are completed justified.
For more insights refer to the bottom of this blog post.
The results for the final 2 scenarios are given below. For details of the Survey Design, Sample size, Sample Stratification etc. refer to the earlier blog post.
Scenario-2 : Four-way contest with DMK Alliance (DMK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, PMK, MDMK, DMDK) and Congress.
Scenario-3: Three-way contest with DMK-DMDK-Congress Alliance (DMK, Congress,DMDK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, MDMK, PMK).
Result of Scenario-2
Scenario-2 is the best case scenario for BJP where it forms a formidable alliance by roping in Vaiko led MDMK, Ramadoss led PMK and Vijayakanth led DMDK. This scenario assumes that DMK and Congress contest separately.
The results of this scenario show that ADMK alliance still tops the vote share (34.2%), however their vote share drops to within 2% range of a whooping 32.4% acquired by the BJP alliance, enabling a neck-to-neck fight between the two alliances. DMK alliance is pushed to third spot in this scenario with 27.9%. Congress manages to retain 5.4% in isolation.
Among age-groups, the youth segment (18-40) is overwhelmingly supporting the BJP+ with a vote share of 35.1%, while ADMK+ comes second with a close 34.8%. DMK comes third among youth voters with 27.2%. However among the older voters (40+) ADMK+ continues to hold sway with 34.8%, while BJP+ has only 27.2%, overtaken by DMK+ with 31%.
Based on education levels, BJP+ is a huge hit among people that have completed college education with a whooping 39.4% vote share. However ADMK+ is most popular among uneducated / school dropouts with a 43.6% vote share. The worrying sign is for DMK+ which manages to get only 25.7% among those with at least a college degree.
Based on occupation, ADMK+ manages to hold sway among Agriculturists and Labour with a 40.1% vote share, while BJP+ fares third in this segment with 23.5%. In all other occupation segments, BJP+ leads over DMK+. The worrying sign for ADMK+ is that, among the private employed people, self-employed/enterpreneurs, and unemployed (including students) BJP+ is ahead of even the ADMK+. This shows that ADMK+ tops the vote share in this scenario, mainly because of the vote of Agriculture/Labour and Government employees.
Results of Scenario-3
This is the best case scenario for DMK, where it allies with both Vijayakanth led DMDK and Congress. The results reveal that DMK+ becomes the front runner in vote share with 33.2%, outwitting the ADMK+ which has 32.9%. However the gap of 0.3% is a close call and will result in neck to neck battle between the two alliances. In this scenario, BJP+ is pushed to third spot with a vote share of 28.1%; which is still an achievement from the past. There are 6% voters who are undecided (or NOTA) who can make the difference on the outcome.
Regarding the age group wise analysis, the youth segment (18-40) is heading for a three way split with a close call ; ADMK+ has 31.9%, BJP+ has 30.3%, and DMK+ has 31.1%. So in some way the voting pattern of the senior voters (40+) decides the final outcome, where DMK+ (36.9%) has a 2% lead over ADMK+ (34.9%), with BJP+ dropping to 24%.
Based on education levels, ADMK+ continues to retain its whooping edge among uneducated and school dropouts with a 43.8% voteshare, whereas BJP+ is reduced to 15.7%; a distant 3rd. With a strong alliance DMK+ manages to close in on this segment with 36.9%. However despite this grand alliance of DMK+, among voters with a college degree, BJP+ continues to hold a handsome lead by topping with a 34.7% vote share.
Based on occupation, ADMK+ see a drop in its vote bank among agriculturists and labour to 39.4%, which allows DMK+ to claw back to 37.1%. BJP+ gets only 19.4% in this segment. However among the Privately employed, Self-employed / enterpreneurs, and Unemployed (including students), BJP+ still manages to give a close fight to the other two alliances.
So overall the results reveal the following significant insights.
- BJP is up for its best performance in Tamilnadu in 2014 polls without allying with any of the two major Dravidian parties. Results show that this vote surge has less to do with BJP as a party, but due to the personal popularity of Narendra Modi and his development oriented agenda.
- There is a heavy negative vote towards the UPA government. However for the DMK, allying with Congress is still important to counter the might of ADMK.
- Despite three years of ADMK rule in the state, anti-incumbency has NOT set in and Jayalalitha seems to have maintained her vote share from 2011 state elections intact. Her core vote bank appears to the older voters (40+), uneducated/school dropouts, and those involved in agriculture/labour. (So one can expect more populism before the election rules come into force!).
- Among demographic segments, the educated, urban youth (age 18-40), particularly the ones working in private organizations, students, self-employed, entrepreneurs appear to be the "new core" vote bank for BJP. BJP should focus on this segment and ensure these votes do not drift (to other parties including AAP) in the lead-up to the elections.
- Although Captain Vijayakanth's DMDK has lost about 2% vote share from the 9% it secured in 2009 polls, it still remains the "game changer" in Tamilnadu. If DMDK allies with BJP then BJP is up for a close top-2 finish with ADMK. If DMDK allies with DMK, then DMK will be able to give a tough fight to ADMK and can even manage to outsmart Jayalalitha's ambitions at the centre.