This is the English Translation of the 2014 Lok Sabha pre-poll survey conducted by Kumudam Reporter Magazine and published in the issue dated 23.1.2014 (but appeared in the stands on 17.01.2014). The website of this magazine is here . It is a paid, subscriber only magazine for online consumption. All copyrights of this survey rests with the source. The only purpose of translating the results is for the benefit of people who don't read Tamil.
Kumudam Reporter magazine conducted a survey across Tamilnadu between the dates 02-Jan-2014 to 05.Jan.2014.
Sample Size & Demographics
- The survey covered 2000 respondents of which 73.5% were men.
- Among respondents, the age group 18-25 constituted 20.9%, 26-40 was 43.2%, 41-55 was 25.8%, and 56+ was the balance 10.1%. In summary, 18-40 constituted 64.1% and 40+ was 35.9% of the sample.
- Among respondents, people who are uneducated & did not complete school was 15.4%, people who have completed schooling was 48.6%, people who have got a degree or more was 36%.
- Among respondents, people who work as labour or in Agriculture constituted 21.2%, working in private organizations was 28.9%, Self-employed / Entrepreneurs were 25.7%, Government employees was 11.1%, and Students and unemployed was 13.1%.
The survey demographics and validity of results were verified and compiled by Professor of Statistics in Madras University, Professor T.R. Gopalakrishnan.
Since the alliances in Tamilnadu are unclear at the moment, the survey asked three questions for different scenarios. The scenarios are described below.
Scenario-1 : All parties stand on their own, without any alliance.
Scenario-2 : Four-way contest with DMK Alliance (DMK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, PMK, MDMK, DMDK) and Congress.
Scenario-3: Three-way contest with DMK-DMDK-Congress Alliance (DMK, Congress,DMDK, VCK, PT, MMK), ADMK Alliance (ADMK, CPI, CPIM), BJP Alliance (BJP, MDMK, PMK).
Only the results of Scenario-1 have been published in this week's issue. The other two scenarios are going to be published in the subsequent issues of the magazine, and we promise to translate them for you (when they come out).
Survey Results for Scenario-1
The results of the overall position when each of the parties stand on its own (without any alliance) shows that ADMK (33.1%) has a 6.5% gap over DMK (26.5%) and tops the list. Vijayakanth's DMDK has been pushed to fourth position to 7.3% vote share, while the Modi effect has led to a surge in the BJP vote share to a whooping 17.8%. PMK retains fifth position with 5.1%. While Congress which once had the 3rd largest vote share has dropped to the bottom of the pile with a meager 4.3%. Vaiko's MDMK has a vote share of 2.3%.
Not only educated voters, but even rural uneducated voters appear to be aware of Narendra Modi. Certain voters in Pudukottai district said, they have traditionally voted for the Congress, but this time we are going to vote for Modi. In several places, Christian voters were backing Modi. A certain respondent called Bhoopalraj (protestant christian) in Tuticorin said that, "If India has to progress, then we need a change, and we think Modi can deliver that change". It was surprising to observe that in Ramanathapuram district, several Muslim voters also voted for Modi.
Many of the urban educated people complained why AAP was missing on the list and about 0.1% voted for AAP, despite that not being offered as an option. The support for AAP is spread both in urban and rural areas, among educated youth in the 18 to 40 bracket. This includes both Men & Women. Many of this AAP supporters ticked BJP in the survey. In Turicorin district some college students said they were even willing to campaign for AAP. Hence if AAP can come out with a strong state level leadership, then the damage will primarily be for the BJP in terms of vote share, given below.
Both DMK and ADMK have voteshare that is above the overall % among the older voters in the 41+ bracket. Among this the gap is severe for DMK which has a 6% difference, compared to the 4% difference of ADMK. BJP has 15% support among older voters (41+) while has a 19.1% support among the youth voters. All the other parties (barring congress) have their youth vote share higher than older voters share. Congress has 5.5% vote share among 41+ voters while has a meagre 3.5% vote share among the youth in 18-40 bracket.
Based on education levels, ADMK is hugely popular among the uneducated / school dropouts with a whooping 41.4% support, while DMK has 29.6% support. ADMK is relatively less popular with people who have completed school (35.3%), and even lesser with degree holders (27%). The equivalent numbers for DMK are 28.5% and 22.8%. BJP has a massive 24.1% support among people with a degree, where it overtakes DMK to the 2nd position in the state. Both DMDK and PMK derive their support base from middle group while tapering on both sides. Congress has least popularity among the middle group. It is also worth noting that the category Others (which includes MDMK and communists) have 9.1% support among the degree holders, which is higher than PMK and DMDK.
Regarding the occupation wise split, ADMK again has a whooping voteshare among the labour + agriculture community with 40.5%, while DMK has 30%. The gap is secularly in the range of 4 to 6% between ADMK and DMK in the other groups, with the lowest gap among the government employees. BJP has the lowest support base among labour & agriculture at 10.6%, while among other occupation groups they enjoy a 18%+ support, with its highest of ~ 20% among self-employed and entrepreneurs. DMDK and PMK both have similar pattern of support base, with their lowest to be among government employees. Congress surprisingly enjoys 6.5% support among government employees and 7.3% from self-employed voters.
The results of the Scenario-2 and Scenario-3 will be published in the subsequent issues of the weekly. We will have the results translated, as and when they are out!