Many friends wanted to read an English Translation of the Survey results for 2014 elections (across Tamilnadu) published by Tamil Magazine Vikatan dated 19th, Jan, 2014 (but published online much earlier). So I thought of helping people out by translating the same. Please note all copyrights of this article exist with the source.
Which Alliance would win ? Who would be the PM in 2014?
The election countdown has started, alliances are still uncertain, leaks of alliance discussions are triggering huge excitement ; In this situation we decided to survey people to check out on answers to questions such as "which alliance should Vijayakanth's DMDK join?", "Which is the strongest alliance? " , "Who will be the next PM?" etc. A team of 90 reporters of Junior Vikatan setout to survey people from all corners of Tamilnadu and surveyed 9174 respondents including 3402 women. Here are the results.
Regarding DMK's decision to quit alliance with Congress, we asked people a question on what do you think about this decision ? The choices were "right decision", "wrong decision", and "crass opportunism". But over 50 percent (52%) of respondents said this is crass opportunism. This flies in the face of earlier media reports about people being broadly supportive of DMK's decision to part ways with Congress.
Regarding the potential alliance between DMK and DMDK, about 41% of the respondents have stated that such an alliance will be called "opportunistic" and 37% had stated that such an alliance will not be acceptable to people.
Regarding the "mega" alliance of BJP, MDMK, PMK and DMDK, about 41% had stated it to be an "alliance of contradictions".
What will Vijayakanth do is a huge suspense before people at the moment. For this question, majority of the people (33%) said DMDK should contest alone. Further 26% said they should join hands with BJP, and 21% said they should ally with DMK.
For the question of who should Congress appoint as their PM candidate, there was a huge reaction & anguish from people. They were angry that, when we don't like congress, why ask such a irrelevant question to us? Why haven't you given us an option of "no comments"? However despite this limitation, among the people that answered this question, over 50% preferred Rahul to the Congress PM nominee.
Regarding who should be the next PM, about 48.5% voted for Narendra Modi as PM. Rahul is in second position with 15.63% votes, others at 16.19%. Despite the ADMK campaign about Jayalalitha for PM, only 12.47% voted for Jayalalitha as PM.
For which alliance would you vote for?, BJP alliance got 40% of the votes. ADMK and DMK alliance have fairly equal votes at 22.7% and 21.77% respectively, with ADMK having a slender 1% lead. Congress got 10.21% of the votes. However during the survey we observed that there is a huge groundswell of support for the AAP, and people complained why they were not included as a choice. In fact many who ticked for the BJP alliance, complained about not having AAP as a choice.
sir, how reliable do you think are the survey results and the magazine itself? Is it doctored??
ReplyDeleteSimply tried favoring BJP & Mr Modi. Modi seems to be an orator (3rd grade speaker). Non-intellectual speech. Before election, he will lose his color!
DeleteJust Because you are third Grade do not see others also from your point of view. UN perula irukkira Anbu un pechula illai.
DeleteAdithya Das, I wouldn't give much credence as the sample size is too small and they have not shared any details on the stratification of their sample. Furthermore note that the editor in chief of Ju.Vi magazine is a self-proclaimed Marxist, Periyarist who has oflate been virulent on ADMK (and to a lesser extend DMK), and actively covering the Anti-Kudankulam protests. So the only thing that one can infer from this survey is the prevalent mood in the state; how this translates into votes will have to wait & see.
ReplyDelete@Gajamani
ReplyDeleteSample sie of 9K+ is actually pretty decent.
Yes sir. 9K is a good sample, but they haven't shared any details on the stratification of the sample. In such surveys, the right stratification is more important that the sample size. For example, we need to know the urban vs rural split, age group wise split, occupation wise split, education level based split, and district wise split. Some say even caste wise split is important. Only if the sample is random & is representative of all these strata, then the results can be generalized for the population. Unlike Kumudam reporter survey which has shared all these details, so that we can do further statistical tests, Ju.Vi has not shared any of these details. Hence the 2K sample of Kumudam Reporter is more reliable than Ju.Vi, although Kumudam sample is colored by male dominance.
DeletePlease watch constitutency wise opinion poll conducted by Thanthi TV and broadcast at 9.30 pm to 10.30 pm Monday to Friday.
ReplyDeleteSample broad cast of Kanyakumari Lok Sabha constiuencty is available in the following link
ReplyDeletehttp://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvnKGHGicE8